This is a new blog on the prospect of a hung parliament at the next UK general election, which will be held before June 2010, and the consequences of such an outcome.To avoid a hung parliament, the Conservative Party requires a larger swing and a larger turnover in seats than they have obtained at any general election since 1931.
The last hung parliament in the UK was in February 1974, and they also occurred in 1929, 1923 and twice in 1910. They were also narrowly avoided in 1992, October 1974, 1964, 1951 and 1950.
It looks quite likely that there will be another in 2010. There are good reasons for believing this, which we hope to explore here further....
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I notice you only have 13 MPs for Nothern Ireland in your prediction table. Is that because you're excluding Sinn Fein MPs? I've always thought that should be considered by the news organisations but I don't think any of them have ever done it.
ReplyDeleteYes, there is what one might call the simple calculation, based in a House of 650, and the more sophisticated calculation, assuming that Sinn Fein continue to abstain at Westminster.
ReplyDeleteIn the latter scenario, the overall majority winning post falls from 326 to 323.