tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7676206747786482535.post5987369654058275481..comments2014-09-28T10:59:15.685+01:00Comments on Hung Parliament 2010: Introducing a New Graph...RodCrosbyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16733476979193451931noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7676206747786482535.post-32841575306180394882010-01-17T19:43:50.856+00:002010-01-17T19:43:50.856+00:00You seem to be alluding to Tactical Voting, Hugh, ...You seem to be alluding to Tactical Voting, Hugh, which of course is the Great Unknown...<br /><br />In general, LD>Con TV (aka "unwind" of previous LD>Lab TV) will tend to shift the bands southwards to the Tories' advantage, while further Lab>LD or Con>LD TV will tend to widen the bands.<br /><br />Successful Targetting would also assist the Tories in a manner similar to TV. It's one of the great myths of 1997 that TV was responsible for most of Labour's bonus seats. As far as can be ascertained, targetting was responsible for the majority of them, while possibly (I'd have to check) the opposite was the case with the LibDems..RodCrosbyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16733476979193451931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7676206747786482535.post-39430059812156899282010-01-17T14:17:13.972+00:002010-01-17T14:17:13.972+00:00Rod- is it fair to say that whilst the hung parlia...Rod- is it fair to say that whilst the hung parliament bands broaden as the LD vote rises, there is more to it than that? For instance, there are seats at the deep end of the Tory target list where LD votes at the expense of Labour make a hung parliament less likely by making it easier for the Tories to win the seat eg Reading West. Also, in macro terms, a given swing from LD to Lab in many areas of the graph, including where the polls are clustering at the minute, drags the position broadly towards the origin and thus a hung parliament.Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09669097087324197724noreply@blogger.com